Oscar 2018 predictions

For the past few years, I have tried to predict the winners in all categories at the Academy Awards. Again, I will be using statistics and data analysis to inform my decision in some categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress

As for the last three years, I stick to what the model tells me for my prediction in these categories. However, I’m skeptical about the predictions I have for best picture: several pundits see The Shape of Water as a front runner, but my model only gives it a 16% chance of winning. Due to rule changes that now require a preferential ballot for Best Picture, the winner has been difficult to predict in recent years. Since The Shape of Water possibly has a broader appeal than Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, it may prevail in the end. But I still believe Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the actual front-runner; but I do think my model is under-estimating The Shape of Water’s chances and over-estimating Lady Bird’s.

In the next few days, I will write another post in which I’ll describe how my model works. I’ll take the opportunity to try and explain why my model is so bearish for The Shape of Water.

My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards next weekend, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.


Best Picture

Lead Actor

Lead Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Director


Adapted Screenplay

Original Screenplay

Cinematography

Best Documentary Feature

Animated Feature

Animated Short

Best Documentary Short Subject

Best Live Action Short Film

Best Foreign Language Film

Film Editing

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Production Design

Original Score

Original Song

Makeup and Hair

Costume Design

Visual Effects