4 min read

Oscar 2018 predictions

2018-02-24

For the past few years, I have tried to predict the winners in all categories at the Academy Awards. Again, I will be using statistics and data analysis to inform my decision in some categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.

As for the last three years, I stick to what the model tells me for my prediction in these categories. However, I’m skeptical about the predictions I have for best picture: several pundits see The Shape of Water as a front runner, but my model only gives it a 16% chance of winning. Due to rule changes that now require a preferential ballot for Best Picture, the winner has been difficult to predict in recent years. Since The Shape of Water possibly has a broader appeal than Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, it may prevail in the end. But I still believe Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the actual front-runner; but I do think my model is under-estimating The Shape of Water’s chances and over-estimating Lady Bird’s.

In the next few days, I will write another post in which I’ll describe how my model works. I’ll take the opportunity to try and explain why my model is so bearish for The Shape of Water.

My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards next weekend, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.

Best Picture

  • Call Me by Your Name (0%)
  • Darkest Hour (0%)
  • Dunkirk (0%)
  • Get Out (0%)
  • Lady Bird (40%)
  • Phantom Thread (1%)
  • The Post (0%)
  • The Shape of Water (16%)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (42%)

Lead Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” (3%)
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread” (1%)
  • Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” (1%)
  • Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” (95%)
  • Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” (1%)

Lead Actress

  • Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” (0%)
  • Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (93%)
  • Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” (0%)
  • Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” (6%)
  • Meryl Streep, “The Post” (1%)

Supporting Actor

  • Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” (6%)
  • Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (1%)
  • Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water” (1%)
  • Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World” (1%)
  • Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (91%)

Supporting Actress

  • Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound” (1%)
  • Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” (93%)
  • Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread” (1%)
  • Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” (4%)
  • Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water” (1%)

Director

  • Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk” (1%)
  • Jordan Peele, “Get Out” (0%)
  • Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird” (2%)
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread” (0%)
  • Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water” (97%)

Adapted Screenplay

  • Call Me by Your Name
  • The Disaster Artist
  • Logan
  • Molly’s Game
  • Mudbound

Original Screenplay

  • The Big Sick
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water

Best Documentary Feature

  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
  • Faces Places
  • Icarus
  • Last Men in Aleppo
  • Strong Island

Animated Feature

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent

Animated Short

  • Dear Basketball
  • Garden Party
  • Lou
  • Negative Space
  • Revolting Rhymes

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Edith+Eddie
  • Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Heroin(e)
  • Knife Skills
  • Traffic Stop

Best Live Action Short Film

  • DeKalb Elementary
  • The Eleven O’Clock
  • My Nephew Emmett
  • The Silent Child
  • Watu Wote/All of Us

Best Foreign Language Film

  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

Film Editing

  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • I, Tonya
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sound Editing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Production Design

  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water

Original Score

  • Dunkirk
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Original Song

  • “Mighty River” from Mudbound
  • “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
  • “Remember Me” from Coco
  • “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
  • “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman

Makeup and Hair

  • Darkest Hour
  • Victoria and Abdul
  • Wonder

Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast
  • Darkest Hour
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Shape of Water
  • Victoria and Abdul

Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Kong: Skull Island
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes