Again this year, I will be using a prediction model to try and predict the winners in the top four categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. As in previous years, I still provide predictions for the other categories, but they were derived on a more ad hoc basis.
According to most pundits, the Best Picture race is wide open. But as you’ll see below, my prediction is less equivocal. To see this, it’s informative to look at how the winning probabilities have changed over time as more information was coming in:
As we can see, my model does not weight all guild awards the same way: a win at the Producers' Guild Awards (PGA) is worth a lot less than a win at the Directors' Guild Awards (DGA) or at the Bafta. Still, given the preferential ballot system used by the academy, my model is probably underestimating the chances of a movie with broad appeal like Green Book.
My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards tomorrow, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.
Update (2019/02/25): I got 16 out of 24 right. This year really convinced me that my model for Best Picture is missing something about the broad appeal movies like Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and Green Book, and so it may be time to update it… Stay tuned!
BEST PICTURE
- BLACK PANTHER (8%)
- BLACKKKLANSMAN (5%)
- BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (1%)
- THE FAVOURITE (13%)
- GREEN BOOK (2%)
- ROMA (62%)
- A STAR IS BORN (1%)
- VICE (8%)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- CHRISTIAN BALE, “Vice” (1%)
- BRADLEY COOPER, “A Star Is Born” (1%)
- WILLEM DAFOE, “At Eternity’s Gate” (0%)
- RAMI MALEK, “Bohemian Rhapsody” (98%)
- VIGGO MORTENSEN, “Green Book” (0%)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE*
- YALITZA APARICIO, “Roma” (0%)
- GLENN CLOSE, “The Wife” (100%)
- OLIVIA COLMAN, “The Favourite” (0%)
- LADY GAGA, “A Star Is Born” (0%)
- MELISSA MCCARTHY, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (0%)
DIRECTING
- BLACKKKLANSMAN, Spike Lee (1%)
- COLD WAR, Paweł Pawlikowski (0%)
- THE FAVOURITE, Yorgos Lanthimos (2%)
- ROMA, Alfonso Cuarón (96%)
- VICE, Adam McKay (1%)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- MAHERSHALA ALI, “Green Book”
- ADAM DRIVER, “BlacKkKlansman”
- SAM ELLIOTT, “A Star Is Born”
- RICHARD E. GRANT, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
- SAM ROCKWELL, “Vice”
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE*
- AMY ADAMS, “Vice”
- MARINA DE TAVIRA, “Roma”
- REGINA KING, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
- EMMA STONE, “The Favourite”
- RACHEL WEISZ, “The Favourite”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- INCREDIBLES 2
- ISLE OF DOGS
- MIRAI
- RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
- SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- COLD WAR
- THE FAVOURITE
- NEVER LOOK AWAY
- ROMA
- A STAR IS BORN
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
- BLACK PANTHER
- THE FAVOURITE
- MARY POPPINS RETURNS
- MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
- FREE SOLO
- HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING, THIS EVENING
- MINDING THE GAP
- OF FATHERS AND SONS
- RBG
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
- BLACK SHEEP
- END GAME
- LIFEBOAT
- A NIGHT AT THE GARDEN
- PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE.
FILM EDITING
- BLACKKKLANSMAN
- BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
- THE FAVOURITE
- GREEN BOOK
- VICE
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- CAPERNAUM, Lebanon
- COLD WAR, Poland
- NEVER LOOK AWAY, Germany
- ROMA, Mexico
- SHOPLIFTERS, Japan
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
- BORDER
- MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
- VICE
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
- BLACK PANTHER
- BLACKKKLANSMAN
- IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
- ISLE OF DOGS
- MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
- ALL THE STARS from Black Panther
- I’LL FIGHT from RBG
- THE PLACE WHERE LOST THINGS GO from Mary Poppins Returns
- SHALLOW from A Star Is Born
- WHEN A COWBOY TRADES HIS SPURS FOR WINGS from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- BLACK PANTHER
- THE FAVOURITE
- FIRST MAN
- MARY POPPINS RETURNS
- ROMA
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
- ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR
- BAO
- LATE AFTERNOON
- ONE SMALL STEP
- WEEKENDS
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
- DETAINMENT
- FAUVE
- MARGUERITE
- MOTHER
- SKIN
SOUND EDITING
- BLACK PANTHER
- BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
- FIRST MAN
- A QUIET PLACE
- ROMA
SOUND MIXING
- BLACK PANTHER
- BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
- FIRST MAN
- ROMA
- A STAR IS BORN
VISUAL EFFECTS
- AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
- CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
- FIRST MAN
- READY PLAYER ONE
- SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
- THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
- BLACKKKLANSMAN
- CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
- IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
- A STAR IS BORN
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
- THE FAVOURITE
- FIRST REFORMED
- GREEN BOOK
- ROMA
- VICE